Well, here we are. The 2024 Bills season is officially over. To kick this off, let’s rewind to my predictions for the 2024 Bills that I wrote about last year after the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the divisional round:
“In closing, it’s hard for me to see the Bills improving next year. What I envision is the same team and coaching staff, which aside from the injury roulette, will most likely yield the same results.”
Well, what exactly were those “same results” that I suggested? Thanks for asking! They were the Bills winning the division, securing a high playoff seed (2 or 3), and losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs.
What were the actual results of the 2024 season? The Bills winning the division, securing a high playoff seed, and losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs (I actually thought this would happen in the divisional round so I was wrong about that). Life’s not particularly exciting for me when results are this predictable.
Same shit different year
What’s somewhat interesting to me is the similarity between this year’s loss to the Chiefs and last year’s loss. I provided a summary of the two games in the table below, but I don’t want you to get caught up in the numbers, although some are eerily similar. What I want to focus on is the TLDR of the two games.
*Possessions listed don’t include those than ended in clock burn (including end of half and end of game)
2023 tldr: it’s the fourth quarter. Chiefs are up by three. Bills get the ball with the opportunity to take the lead and give the Chiefs little time for a rebuttal score. Josh drives down the field into enemy territory but with 1:47 left, the offense stalls out and Bass misses a game tying field goal (we would’ve lost anyway). Chiefs regain possession and run the clock to zeroes. Chiefs win.
2024: it’s the fourth quarter. Chiefs are up by three. Bills get the ball with the opportunity to take the lead and give the Chiefs little time for a rebuttal score. Josh drives to midfield but with 2:00 left, the offense stalls out and ultimately turns the ball over on downs. Chiefs regain possession and run the clock to zeroes. Chiefs win.
How did we get to such similar endings in both games? By taking the same way there (obviously).
In the 2023 matchup, the Bills offense gained yards and scored points, but everything seemed difficult. The offense really had to grind and dig deep to keep drives going. Things were never easy and converting on third and long and fourth downs was a must. Defense was pretty much a no show as the Chiefs moved the ball with ease and only punted once the whole game. The Chiefs did, however, have a costly turnover that kept the Bills alive.
In the 2024 matchup, things were pretty much the same: the Bills offense gained yards and scored points, but again, everything seemed difficult. The offense really had to grind, and the Bills had to convert multiple fourth downs, two of which for touchdowns!! Defense was again pretty much a no show as the Chiefs moved the ball the ball with ease but did punt twice, once more than they did in 2023. The Chiefs did, again, have a turnover that helped keep the Bills alive.
I’m not going to deep dive the nuances of the game here because pretty much everything I wrote about in my post from last year applies, so if you’re interested in those details, please check that out.
The only thing that I want to highlight from this past loss is the underwhelming performance from the Bills front four, which I cited as the key reason for the loss last year and will cite as a major reason for this year’s loss, though I don’t think it’s as much to blame this year as it was last year because they did manage to get some pressure on Mahomes this time around.
However, undisciplined pass rush attempts allowed Mahomes to escape the pocket multiple times and either roll out for completions downfield or pick up large chunks of yardage with his legs. I think one reason for this was the Bills’ edge rushers getting caught inside and/or generally failing to establish contain (for example see 3:30 left in the first quarter and 14:53 left in the third quarter). However, when the Bills did maintain their rush lanes and tried to collapse the pocket, Mahomes was able to dink and dunk his way down the field with short passes due to shoddy coverage on the backend. It seemed like whenever the D line did their job, coverage failed to do theirs and vice-versa. Pretty much the Bills defense was a pile of shit like it is every year against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Having the privilege of writing this after the Chiefs’ blowout loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, it’s even clearer to me how severe the Bills’ defensive failures were. The Eagles front four were able to collapse the pocket on almost every play and keep Mahomes contained by maintaining disciplined pass rush lanes. In addition, the Eagles D played excellent on the back end, sitting on short routes and making throwing windows very tight for the completions Mahomes typically looks for in situations where he has to get the ball out quick.
Obviously, the Bills don’t have the same talent that Philly does on defense, but they should’ve been able to make life harder for the Chiefs than they did. I don’t understand how the Chiefs receivers had so much separation only a few yards downfield. It seems geometrically impossible but somehow, they were doing it. The throwing windows were enormous in most cases, and when they weren’t, the Bills under-talented secondary got shown up (ex. Worthy catch 3:07 left in the second quarter). I’m not sure if the Bills secondary doesn’t know how to run coverages or if they’re just so untalented that they’re unable to execute (cough cough Kaiir Elam).
I will close the section with this amazing fact:
The Bills have played the Chiefs four times in the playoffs. In those four games, the Chiefs have punted six times total. In Super Bowl LIX against the Eagles, the Chiefs punted six times, five in the first half.
On the bright side
Although the 2024 Bills met the same fate as the 2023, 2021, and 2020 Bills, I was impressed with many aspects of the team this year. Defensively, the ability to generate turnovers was the difference maker in several games, most notably in the divisional round win against the Ravens. The ability of the defense to make game-to-game adjustments and in-game adjustments (most notably in the second half) was also very encouraging, as I noticed the Bills D stiffened up after half in a handful of games. The most impressive defensive game plan I thought came against the Ravens in the divisional round, where the Bills were able to stifle Henry just enough in the first half to get the Ravens to move away from the run game and ultimately start shooting themselves in the foot on pass plays. I think McDermott largely made the most out of the talent he had to work with this year on the defensive side of the ball.
What was most impressive to me was the evolution of the offense this season. A remarkably balanced attack led by James Cook in the run game and Khalil Shakir(?) in the pass game allowed the Bills to operate with long, efficient drives and dominate time of possession. The reason for the (?) after Shakir is because I don’t even know who would be considered the Bills’ no. 1 receiver. This year, the no. 1 receiver was whoever was open.
The lack of turnovers was also amazing as Josh cleaned up both his interception and fumble proclivities. I honestly can’t say with any degree of certainty what drove this, but I think it’s possible that he no longer felt the need to force throws perhaps because we had a reliable rush attack or perhaps because he didn’t feel the need to get certain people the ball (cough cough). The lack of turnovers and dominance in time of possession really put the squeeze on opponents, permitting them minimal margin for error. Couple this with a defense that generates turnovers and that, my friend, is a recipe for success.
If I had to give an overarching theme to this Bills season, I think “doing more with less” would be an appropriate one. Even with middling talent, the Bills were still able to make a deep playoff run by focusing on good fundamentals, not making mistakes, and forcing opponents to make mistakes. This season was one of the first times that I’ve seen the Bills beat more talented teams by not making mistakes themselves, forcing mistakes by the opponent, and capitalizing on those mistakes when they were committed. The Ravens game is the perfect example of this. I think the 2024 Bills were very “Patriots-esque” (aside from choking in the playoffs).
Looking ahead
The TLDR here is essentially the same as last year: “it’s hard for me to see the Bills improving next year. What I envision is the same team and coaching staff, which aside from the injury roulette, will most likely yield the same results.”
Specifically, I think the Bills will win the division, land a solid playoff seed (2 or 3 seed), and most likely lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs. I suppose it’s possible that they would lose to the Bengals or possibly Ravens if they somehow matched up before playing the Chiefs. If this came to fruition, I think it would come in the divisional round. I don’t see them losing to any other potential playoff team unless they implode (Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, Texans, etc.).
As for the question of will the McDermott/Allen Bills ever beat the Reid/Mahomes Chiefs in the playoffs, the analogy I like to use is hitting a hole in one in golf. Do I think it’s possible that before I die, I will hit a hole in one? Definitely. Do I think it’s likely? Not really. Would I ever bet a million dollars on any particular hole right before teeing off that this was the time I was doing it? Absolutely not. Same story with the Bills. I think they can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, but if you asked me to bet on them before any particular playoff game, I’m taking the Chiefs every time. I’ve done that the past two years and have been right each time. It’s amazing to me though that my fellow Bills fans go into the game thinking “this is the year.” Like why? What has changed? It’s the same record on fucking repeat. The only thing I can think is that saying the Bills will win is the socially acceptable take amongst fans and I guess that’s fine.
As far as the offseason goes, I’d try to figure out how to improve the front four on defense, preferably through draft picks or by developing some of the younger guys we currently have. I wouldn’t sign another guy from free agency on the wrong side of the aging hill (cough cough Myles Garrett) unless it was a relatively cheap and/or short-term contract. I would also prioritize retaining as much as the O-line as possible, as I think they were stellar this past year. I wouldn’t pay Cook big money but would keep him around if it were possible to do so at a reasonable price. I’d try to develop Keon more but he’s looking like a bit of a bust thus far. His route running and body positioning don’t look great, and he can’t sell a PI to save his life. I’m also concerned about the secondary. The Bills have practically no depth at corner or safety, and Elam is not the answer. He is not coming along and it’s hard to watch. I’m not sure if he’s not getting the attention he needs from the coaching staff to develop as a player or what, but he’s a major liability.
In closing, I think Sean is a good coach and made the most of what talent the Bills had available this year. Unfortunately, good coaches seldom win Super Bowls, it’s usually the great ones that triumph. I think it’s possible to bring home a Lombardi at some point over the next five years because the Bills will always be in contention with JA17 at the helm. I just think Josh will have to do more to get there as the team’s talent pool continues to wither. Go Bills.
