Well, here we are again. The 2025 Bills season is officially over. Like always, I’ll kick this off with a recap of my predictions for this year that I stated at the end of last season.
TLDR: “It’s hard for me to see the Bills improving next year. What I envision is the same team and coaching staff, which aside from the injury roulette, will most likely yield the same results.”
Specifically: “I think the Bills will win the division, land a solid playoff seed (2 or 3 seed), and most likely lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs. I suppose it’s possible that they would lose to the Bengals or possibly the Ravens if they somehow matched up before playing the Chiefs. If this came to fruition, I think it would come in the divisional round. I don’t see them losing to any other potential playoff team unless they implode (Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, Texans, etc.).”
Obviously, I was wrong about several things: the Bills didn’t win the division or lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs. However, the last thing I would’ve wanted to come to fruition was the latter potentiality I listed above “I don’t see them losing to any other potential playoff team unless they implode.” Well, this past Saturday against the Broncos was an implosion for the ages with poor performance on both sides of the ball. Time for the postmortem analysis.
The offense
Starting with the obvious, the five turnovers are what cost them the game. However, I think there’s far more to that stat than meets the eye. Although this may be a hot take, I think Cook’s fumble at the beginning of the second quarter was the most damaging of the five turnovers. Cook’s fumble was a devastating momentum killer that ultimately enabled Denver to capitalize with a touchdown, giving them a 10-7 lead. I think this sequence of events shook the team and contributed to Allen’s inexplicable meltdown and associated fumble seconds before halftime that gifted Denver three free points.
With the second half underway, the offensive struggles continued as Allen was strip sacked on his second snap. I don’t blame Allen for that play as he doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, but I also don’t think the offense would have been in that situation if they hadn’t been down two scores to start the third quarter thanks to Cook’s fumble and Allen’s meltdown before halftime.
The fourth turnover however was another regrettable decision by Allen. The drive started within field goal range thanks to a Bo Nix interception. The first play was a screen that resulted in a four-yard loss, which was followed by another pass on second and fourteen that resulted in Allen throwing a deep ball into double coverage. The play selection on that drive is baffling to me. We were already in field goal range and had been successful on the ground up to that point. The only way to whiff on points in that situation is by losing yards or turning the ball over. Electing to pass drastically increases the chances of both a turnover (interception or strip sack) and losing yards (holding penalty, sack, etc). The Bills needed to recognize that the only way they were going to lose that game was by turning the ball over. They weren’t playing the playing KC; they didn’t need a touchdown on every possession to win. Context awareness was key to winning this game and I don’t think the Bills offense did a good job in that regard.
I don’t blame Allen for the last turnover of the game, which occurred on third and eleven in overtime. Throwing a deep ball into one-on-one coverage on third and long is absolutely the right move in that situation, not to mention that it was a perfect throw. Most receivers are either catching that ball or drawing a DPI, which would’ve set the Bills up with a game-winning field goal attempt. Denver’s game winning drive was fueled entirely by throws into one-on-one coverage and drawing DPIs. Cooks just couldn’t get it done.
Outside of the turnovers, I think the Bills’ offensive playcalling was sub-par from a situational standpoint. As I mentioned earlier, coming away with no points after picking off Bo Nix in Denver territory is unacceptable. There is no reason to be passing on the first two plays of that drive when not losing yards essentially guarantees you three points. Again, being situationally aware was key. Touchdowns on every drive weren’t needed to beat Denver. Just don’t turn the ball over and you win.
The playcalling in overtime was also poor in my opinion. A field goal in overtime would’ve won the game. The Bills should have treated the overtime possession as if they were down three with two minutes left in the game. I think the best approach would have been to run hurry up to lock Denver into a personnel grouping, tire out their pass rushers, and get them on their heels. I think that nine times out of ten, a Josh Allen led two-minute drill is resulting in at least a field goal, and that field goal was all that was needed to win the game.
Finally, I think missed opportunities sealed the fate of the Bills this game, and I think Allen must shoulder the blame for most of them. First, Allen missed Dawson Knox for what could’ve been the game sealing touchdown at the end of the fourth. He also missed a wide-open Mecole Hardman with a low throw in overtime that could’ve set up an entry into field goal range had they connected. Allen also skipped the ball to Khalil Shakhir and overthrew a wide-open Curtis Samuel on our second last possession in the fourth quarter; both of those plays could have resulted in a touchdown. There was also a miss on an end zone shot to Cooks that I don’t dwell too much because I couldn’t tell if Cooks stopped running or was held by the db or both.
Of course, Allen isn’t to blame for all the offense’s missed opportunities. Keon Coleman dropped a ball in the endzone that hit him perfectly in the hands on third down (yeah I get that there was a holding call but at least you get another crack at the end zone), and Brandon Cooks couldn’t draw a DPI or come down with a perfectly thrown 50/50 ball in overtime that got intercepted. The Cooks interception was of course far more damaging than Keon’s drop.
I also want to note my disappointment in the Bills for having to rely so heavily on the tush push to maintain drives. The play is controversial and by the opinion of many has no place in football. I think the fact that they had to rely on it to convert so often during this game attests to team’s offensive struggles.
The defense
The defense’s performance was also far from Super Bowl caliber. Like last year, the front four pitched another no-show outing, without a single sack recorded and to my recollection, no hits on Bo Nix outside of Bosa’s roughing the passer in overtime. The only way the Bills seemed to be able to generate pressure was by sending extra guys, which put too much strain on their thin and unreliable secondary, especially when the rushers failed to get home. An underwhelming performance by the Bills’ front four has been a recurring theme in the playoffs over the past several years, and I think it’s a major reason why they perpetually fall short of making, let alone winning, a Super Bowl.
The defense also failed to make key stops, none of which stand clearer in my mind than when they allowed Bo Nix to convert a 3rd and 11 on Denver’s final drive in regulation that ultimately led to their go-ahead touchdown. A Super Bowl caliber defense doesn’t allow a second-year quarterback march down the field for a go-ahead touchdown with under a minute left in the fourth quarter.
Finally, the lack of reliable depth in the secondary was absolutely crippling this game. When Darnell Savage had to step in for Cam Lewis (I think), he immediately overran a route and gave up a touchdown. When Dane Jackson had to step in for Tre White, he immediately got beat deep for a touchdown that enabled Denver to take the lead with under a minute left, although this was probably a blessing in disguise as it allowed the Bills to rebuttal with a field goal to send the game into OT.
Whining about the refs
Whining about the officiating is embarrassing and unhelpful. Officiating isn’t the reason the Bills lost the game. Officiating isn’t the reason Josh Allen inexplicably threw the ball backwards to nobody for no reason on his own 30-yard line with ten seconds left before half to give Denver three free points, or why James Cook fumbled in Denver territory, or why Allen missed a wide open Dawson Knox for what could’ve been the game sealing touchdown, or why Allen missed a wide open Mecole Hardman in overtime for what could’ve set up an entry into field goal range, or why Allen skipped the ball to Khalil Shakhir for what could’ve been a touchdown, or why Allen overthrew a wide open Curtis Samuel for what could’ve been a touchdown, or why Keon Coleman dropped a ball in the endzone that hit him perfectly in the hands on third down (yeah I get that there was a holding call but at least you get another crack at the end zone), or why Brandon Cooks couldn’t draw a DPI or come down with the 50/50 ball that got intercepted in overtime, or why the Bills defense allowed a second year quarterback to convert a third and eleven and march down the field to score the go ahead touchdown with minutes left in the game. The Bills have only themselves to blame for losing this game. THE NFL CHANGED THE OVERTIME RULES FOR THE BILLS AND THEY STILL LOST IN OVERTIME!! Credit given to where it’s due for Josh Allen shouldering the blame for the loss. All the other people whining about the officiating (cough cough McDermott) need to grow up.
Post game waterworks
It was also frustrating to see Allen crying at the post-game press conference. Sure, I understand how you could feel disappointed for letting your team down, blowing your best shot at a Super Bowl appearance to date, and getting your coach fired with that kind of performance, but at the end of the day, being an NFL quarterback is a job. A job is what you do to pay the bills and support yourself; it’s not something that you should let define your self-worth. For NFL players especially, it’s not that serious. Their job is to run around a field with a ball and put on a show. Allen didn’t commit some grave sin, all he did was throw the ball to the wrong team too many times. Nobody got hurt, nobody died.
An NFL quarterback crying at a press conference about their performance on the field indicates to me that they were way too emotionally invested in their job. When you’re too emotionally invested in something, you can’t think clearly, and when you can’t think clearly, you can’t make good decisions. An ability to make good decisions is paramount for success at the quarterback position, and I think Allen has become so emotionally invested in his vision of carrying the Bills to a Super Bowl that it hinders his ability to play his best football. The season is long and grueling enough on its own. The added mental burden that comes with that level of emotional investment will run even the toughest of characters into the ground. Allen should try and get some help to get his mind right.
The good this season:
My theme for the 2024 season was “doing more with less,” and I think this year, the theme would be “doing even more with less.” I think McDermott continued to grow as a head coach this year, as indicated by his ability to keep us in contention with what was in my opinion our least talented roster to date, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Starting with the defense, I was shockingly impressed with their ability to make adjustments during halftime. As a team, we had an exceptional second half point differential this year, and I think much of that was fueled by the defense locking in during the third and fourth quarters. I think an ability to adjust at half is a critical skill for making a Super Bowl run, and McDermott knocked it out of the park this year. I can think of several games where our defense provided the offense plenty of opportunities to go and take the game in the second half.
The development of Max Hairston and Cole Bishop was also great to see, as I think both players made great strides this year. I also think having Poyer’s veteran voice on the field with Bishop was instrumental to Bishop’s development and the overall success of the defense. I’m looking forward to seeing how Cole and Max continue to develop next year.
In addition to the halftime adjustments, I think McDermott demonstrated steps in the right direction from a game management standpoint, though he of course is hardly perfect. I don’t have the stats on this so it could be an ill-informed take, but it seemed this year that there were far fewer instances of McDermott blowing timeouts early in the second half, which was one of my major gripes against him in the past. I can’t remember a single occurrence of his trademark move this past year, where he calls a timeout on defense and the other team ends up scoring a touchdown or converting anyway.
What really won me over this year however was McDermott’s decision to go for two to win the game against the Eagles. I feel like the McDermott of previous years would’ve kicked the PAT to send the game into overtime, which is a guaranteed loss for the Bills. This year, McDermott put the opportunity to win the game in the hands of the star player and the offensive coordinator who drew up an excellent play that resulted in Shakhir being wide open in the end zone. Unfortunately, Allen blew it with an errant throw as he seems to do quite often when it matters most.
I also give credit to McDermott and Joe Brady for developing such a formidable rushing attack. Given the lack of talent at the WR position and Allen’s penchant for turnovers, a strong rushing attack was a great way to hedge against the team’s key weaknesses. I think the Bills’ rushing attack was a major contributor to the team’s sustained success into the post season. I also think the Bills’ rushing attack could’ve single-handedly won the game in Denver, but unfortunately, the turnover bug bit James Cook at an inopportune time.
The not good this season:
Outside of the quarterback, running back, and offensive line, this year’s roster was probably the least talented that I can think of in recent memory, particularly at the skill positions. The Bills have no true WR1; there is nobody on the team that can help draw double coverage, is a go-to guy on critical downs, or can force the defense to play certain coverages. Opposing team’s secondaries don’t have to play scared.
However, I think the lack of talent in the Bills secondary was far more crippling. The team regularly fielded defensive backs who were well past their prime (Tredavious White, Jordan Poyer, etc.), though these veterans have high football IQ which helps offset the physical limitations that come with age. Critically, we had minimal depth at corner and safety, which I think contributed significantly to our loss in Denver. Combine this lack of depth in the secondary with an underwhelming front four and that’s a strong headwind for a team looking for a deep playoff run.
Although the defense excelled at stiffening up in the second half of games, they often left much to be desired in the first half (ex. Patriots game) and seemed to be unable to get off the field on third and long at times. The defense also continued to struggle in the playoffs, specifically against Denver when they allowed 33 points, though it’s hard to blast them for that given the Bills’ five turnovers and the fact that they sealed the game against the Jaguars. I think I saw a stat that the Bills’ D has averaged over 30 points allowed in the playoffs over the past few years, which ain’t gonna cut it if you want a Super Bowl ring.
The Bills’ issues as a team of course extend well into the offensive side of the ball. Allen was unable to stave off the turnover bug this year and devolved in multiple games both during the regular season and most critically in the loss against Denver to end the season. He also appeared to revert to some of his old, unproductive tendencies this year such as getting into his own head and trying to do too much in times when conservative play and solid fundamentals would have been a better approach (cough cough Denver game).
Although I generally don’t like to comment on players’ leadership styles because they vary based on the person, I’ll make exception to that rule and comment that I would like to see Allen continue to grow as a leader, particularly on the sidelines. I’m wary of the footage I seem to frequently see of Allen sitting by himself on the bench staring off into space during games. It could be more productive for Allen to get together with his o-line, hype guys up, or look at the tablet and prepare for the next series. However, because I’m not him and I don’t how his mind works, this might not be a better approach, but I think it could at least be worth trying, especially during the regular season to help him stay in the moment.
On the offensive front as a whole, I think there is substantial room for improvement, particularly around playcalling. The offense seemed to sputter in games quite often (ex. Falcons game, Texans game, Dolphins game, Eagles game, etc.), and I felt like the playcalling from Brady was stale and predictable at times. It would have been nice to see a bit more creativity in the play designs with pre-snap motion, different route combinations, etc., but most importantly, I think it would have paid dividends to get Cook and TYJ more involved in the passing game, especially given the Bills’ dearth of tier one WRs.
What also reared its ugly head this season is something that has become a true staple of the McDermott-Allen era: the inability to win in overtime. Allen is a staggering 0 – 7 in overtime, including 0 – 3 in the playoffs, while McDermott is 1 – 7 with the Bills (I believe). This perpetual inability to win in overtime is a crippling handicap for the team and their Super Bowl aspirations. The NFL even changed the overtime rules for the Bills and they still can’t win in overtime! In the 2025 playoffs alone, we’ve already seen two overtime games (including the Denver game). The likelihood of encountering an overtime game in the playoffs is quite high, and an inability to win those games is a significant detriment to the team’s ability to win a championship. Football isn’t a large sample size sport, but 0 – 7 is as large a sample size as I’ve seen around such a statistic and it’s absolutely, positively abysmal.
The lack of accountability from certain members of the Bills team/organization also reared its ugly head this season, particularly after the loss to Denver (see the “Whining about the refs” section above). For the record, Josh Allen is NOT one of them.
Word on the street is that McDermott began blasting the officials shortly after the game for the Cooks catch/interception ruling. Blasting the officials after the game is a fruitless endeavor, they aren’t going to change the call after the game and have the guys run it back. It’s completely ridiculous. Instead, McDermott should have publicly taken some accountability for his shortcomings during the game. For example, it would have been good for McDermott to force Allen to kneel out the first half instead of allowing him to play hero ball and shoot himself in the foot. Obviously, Allen absolutely has to be better, but coaches also sometimes need to function like parents. Sometimes your kid thinks they’re going to do something really great, but you’re older and wiser and know that it’s not a good idea so you protect them from themselves. I’m guessing McDermott didn’t think Allen would make as poor of a decision as he did, but why bother taking the chance.
McDermott’s tendency to dodge accountability may very well extend much farther back than just this past year, however. Word on the street is that McDermott said something along the lines of the offense scored too fast during the “13 seconds” game and left too much time on the clock. If true, that would be an insane take. As head coach, you can tell the special teams coordinator to kick a squib or kick the ball into what now is referred to as “the landing zone.” Take some accountability for the decisions that you made during the game that could have changed the game’s outcome.
Looking ahead
First, I have to address the elephant in the room. I think firing McDermott was the right move, but also that the move occurred at one of the strangest possible times. I first toyed with the idea of firing McDermott after the 13 seconds game, but it wasn’t until the “wide right” loss to the Chiefs in the 2023 divisional round at home that I really doubled down on it. “Wide right 2.0” was the point at which I became firmly convinced that McDermott wasn’t going to get past Andy Reid in the playoffs. Last year’s loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship therefore came as no surprise to me, but delusional Bills fans across the country still believed they would pull through for some bizarre reason.
McDermott’s inability to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs (0 – 4) combined with his abysmal overtime record of 0 – 7 in the Josh Allen era strongly support the case for his dismissal. The probability of having a playoff run where you don’t have to play the Chiefs or an overtime game is next to zero, thereby making the probability of a Super Bowl appearance by the McDermott-Allen Bills (let alone winning one) next to zero.
With McDermott officially out, I will take this opportunity to pat myself on the back for my correct take from two years ago (after “Wide Right 2.0”) that the McDermott-Allen Bills would not bring home a Lombardi. The odds were just stacked too high against them. More on my prediction for Allen’s future with the Bills later.
Although I agree with the decision to fire McDermott, it was quite bizarre that the axe came down when it did because I think most would agree that the lion’s share of the blame for the “Mile High Blunder” falls on Allen. This, combined with my feeling that McDermott overachieved this year with an undertalented roster meant that I was blindsided when I got the news. From a bird’s-eye view, however, this shouldn’t have been surprising to me as losing a playoff game in overtime is nothing new for the McDermott-Allen Bills. This was the Bills’ third time around that block.
However, what was even more bizarre to me than McDermott’s dismissal was Beane’s promotion to president of football operations. Outside of drafting Allen, Beane has continuously left much to be desired from a roster building standpoint. I saw a stat that Beane has only drafted 2 pro bowl players out of the 56 draft picks that he has selected since drafting Josh Allen, one of them being Dawson Knox! Given that bowl nominations are practically given out like candy nowadays, this statistic is almost unfathomable. Combine that with two major first round busts in Elam and Coleman, and I’m really left scratching my head.
If the past eight years have taught me anything, it’s that the Bills need to surround Allen with more talent to win a Super Bowl. Expecting Allen to string together four great games in the post season is a tall order for a quarterback who has continually exhibited a propensity to intersperse mind blowingly bad performances amongst exceptional ones. Just look at this past post-season. Placing the team’s Super Bowl aspirations on Allen’s shoulders is a reckless move. A hiccup in the playoffs usually ends your season, especially if it happens after the wildcard round.
The Mile High Blunder is the poster child for this point. Allen had a hiccup (well maybe a bit more than a hiccup) and nobody bailed him out: James Cook fumbled, the defense allowed 33 points, the defense also allowed a second year quarterback to convert a third and eleven to drive down the field for the go ahead touchdown with under a minute left in the game, the butterfingered offensive lineman couldn’t scoop up Allen’s fumble before halftime, Mecole Hardman couldn’t make the shoestring catch in OT, and Cooks couldn’t come down with the 50/50 ball that would’ve set up the game winning field goal. I’m not going to bash Allen too much for having a hiccup, nobody is perfect and expecting perfection out of a player is a recipe for disappointment. What was honestly more disappointing to me than Allen’s performance was that nobody else on the team could seem to bail him out when he needed it most.
Going forward, I think the Bills’ top priority should be fixing their post-season defense. The Bills’ regular season defense performs (mostly) quite well, but when it comes time for the post season, the flood gates seem to open. In their post-season losses under McDermott, the Bills have allowed 33.2 points per game (cite Google AI overview). That’s a statistic that needs to change, and I think the best way to do that is with a new defensive coordinator. The Bills should also bolster their front four. Being able to generate pressure with four pass rushers is critical with the defensive backs we currently have rostered.
I think the second highest priority should be fixing the Bills’ situational offense. In seven overtime games, the Josh Allen led offense has a total of three points. THREE POINTS! That statistic is so mind-blowingly abysmal it’s essentially impossible to believe. What’s even worse is that in six of those seven games, Allen had the ball with the opportunity to win the game!
Outside of overtime games, there were multiple playoff games that ended in regulation where the Bills had the ball with an opportunity to take the lead but ultimately fell short. In the 2023 divisional round, the Bills started a drive on their own 20-yard line down three with eight minutes left in the fourth. Allen led the offense down the field to the Chiefs’ 26-yard line with 1:47 left but failed to cash in, leading to the infamous “Wide Right 2.0” kick. In the 2025 AFC Championship, the Bills started a drive on their own 30-yard line down three with three minutes left in the fourth. The Bills were only able to make it seventeen yards to their own 47-yard line before turning the ball over on downs and allowing the Chiefs to run out the clock. In Allen’s seven playoff losses, he has only left the field with the lead one time, which was during the “13 Seconds” game.
Going forward, I foresee the Bills’ path to a Super Bowl only getting more difficult Bills. The Patriots have returned to form with a solid coach and QB, and I anticipate that AFC East titles will consequently become much harder fought for the foreseeable future. Gone are the days of stacking wins off a trash division and securing a high playoff seed with homefield advantage.
I also think it’s going to get more difficult (but certainly not impossible) to roster talent around Allen as his cap hit continues to grow. Of course, the best hedge against cap constraints is to draft and develop players. Unfortunately, the Bills organization hasn’t done a very good job of that over the past several years in my opinion, at least at the skill positions (cough cough Elam, sniffle sniffle Coleman).
With that said, I now feel comfortable in saying that I think the Bills’ Super Bowl window is now substantially smaller than it was between 2020 and 2024, and that it will at best remain this size for the duration of Allen’s tenure with the team; at worst, it will shrink further. To be completely clear, I’m talking purely from a probabilistic standpoint and stating that I believe the Bills’ probability of bringing home a Lombardi in any given year going forward is now lower than it was over the past five seasons. The probability is not zero and will be far from zero as long as Allen is on the team. However, given that we’re now going Allen’s ninth season with the Bills and have yet to even play for a Lombardi, I now feel it is very unlikely (but not impossible) that Allen wins a Super Bowl with the Bills. Give this, I will now make an official prediction: “Josh Allen will not bring home a Lombardi with the Bills.”
As for next season, it’s tough for me to say with certainty how it will play out. Without the addition of a true WR1 or talent on the defensive line, I again see a similar roster to last year. However, with the debut of an entirely new coaching staff, things could go south just as equally as they could go north. It’s impossible for me to have a strong take on this because I wouldn’t have any real evidence to substantial it with. Therefore, my only prediction for next year is that it will be different. By how much? Only time will tell.
Go Bills
