The Bills finished the year with the exact game they wanted, Kansas City Chiefs at home. This was the Bills’ time; this was their moment. T’was now that they would slay the almighty beast that had slammed the door shut on their Super Bowl aspirations twice in the past three years. The moment was theirs for the taking and in this moment, they would prove to the world that they were in fact top dogs in the AFC, worthy of everyone’s respect.
But sadly, they didn’t. Instead, in classic McDermott era Bills fashion, they choked like a skeleton on a crust of bread. Two minutes left in the game, ball in Kansas City territory, down by three points. The Josh Allen led offense had marched down the field, consuming more than 5 minutes of clock, relishing every hard-earned yard against the stout Kansas City defense. This was supposed to be the moment where the Bills sealed the deal. The opportunity was in the palms of their hands. But with a few incompletions and a wide right field goal by Tyler Bass, it slipped through the cracks of their fingers, yet again.
What went wrong in the game against KC? Casual football viewers would probably be quick to blame Tyler Bass. He didn’t do his job, it cost the team the game. Others with a bit more knowledge may mention concerns around the offensive play calling on the final drive, noting how the Bills moved away from the run game that had served them so well during the first three quarters. But unfortunately, my untrained eye believes the true causes of the Bills’ latest choke job run much, much deeper than meets the eye.
Defensive woes
Sean McDermott is what many would consider a defensive purist. With such a head coach, one would have expected the Bills’ defense to be one of its strongpoints during the game, especially considering KC’s offensive struggles throughout the year. For most of the regular season, the Bills’ defense was a strongpoint, but when it mattered most, this was not the case.
The Bills’ biggest defensive problem during the game was poor performance from their front four. The Bills entered the game with a decimated secondary, so undermanned that McDermott was pulling guys out of their RVs to fill starting positions (shout out to Klein for leading the team in tackles three days after being pulled from his RV, that was amazing). With this, the Bills defense needed a big performance from their front four if they wanted any chance at winning the game.
Instead, they got anything but. Von Miller produced yet another no-show outing, along with the usual greats in Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and company. I only remember one realistic shot at Mahomes during the entire game, on a second and nine in the first quarter. Mahomes was in the grasp but spun out of it, rolled right, and hit Rashee Rice for a 20+ yard catch and run.
You may think Andy Reid out schemed our defense, but Chiefs’ final drive refutes this hypothesis. One of the best litmus tests for a defense is if they can stop the run when they know it’s coming, like when the opponent has the ball with 1:42 left in the game up by three points. Instead of stuffing the run, the Bills coughed up nine yards to Pacheko on first down, and there went the season.
Embarrassing coverage by the secondary was the second biggest woe of the game in my opinion. The fact that Travis Kelce was able catch a touchdown without a defender within ten yards of him is embarrassing. The Chiefs have two reliable receivers, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. How you don’t cover one of them when they are on your 22-yard line I just don’t know.
For a lot of the game, the Bills had AJ Klein on Travis Kelce. Yeah, they had their RV linebacker on KC’s no. 2 (or even arguably no. 1) receiving threat. Sure, this might work when you have Matt Milano, the best cover linebacker in the league (in my opinion), but in case you forgot, Milano was on Kelce when he caught the game winning touchdown to seal the deal in the 13 seconds game. Asking your RV linebacker to cover Travis Kelce is way above his pay grade.
From a bird’s eye view, this defensive performance is almost identical to the Bills’ past defensive performances against KC in the playoffs, including the Bills 38 – 24 loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. How can that be when the Chiefs only put up 27 this time around? Simple, the Chiefs scored field goals instead of touchdowns on two drives and had fewer possessions because the Bills held the ball for longer on offense this time around. That was it. Just like past matchups, KC scored on nearly every drive (all but two in this case, not counting end-of-game). And just like those past matchups, the Bills failed to make the required adjustments to slow down KC. Same shit different day.
McDermott seems to be learning from his mistakes, unfortunately
McDermott had a lot to learn from in his past two post-season meetups with KC. Two important items that come to mind are how to stiffen defensively when it matters, which does not appear to have been addressed, and how aggressive to be on offense, which unfortunately does appear to have been addressed. Why is this unfortunate? Because he addressed the issue with one of the worst postseason play calls I’ve ever seen. Any guesses to what I’m referring to? Keep reading to find out!
When the opposing offense scores on all their drives, guess what that means? Yeah, your offense has to score on all their drives too. The Bills went for it on fourth down a handful of times, and rightfully so (applause to you, Sean). But what should you do when you’re down by three and facing fourth and five on your own thirty? If you answered “fake punt,” you may want to consider interviewing for a coaching position on the Buffalo Bills.
That fake punt call is up there in my mind as one of the all-time bad postseason coaching decisions. Not as bad as Pete Carroll’s quick slant in the Super Bowl, but still pretty bad. Why you would trust your special teams, who lost you two games this season (Jets opener and Broncos), to run a play they hadn’t run all year instead of keeping your Josh Allen led offense on the field is beyond me. It honestly wasn’t even executed that poorly; I just don’t think the play is even designed to get you five yards. Had the Chiefs not had their unluckiest fumble in franchise history off that turnover, that would have been the game.
Sadly, the fake punt wasn’t even the worst of the coaching decisions made in the fourth quarter. Those decisions came during the Bills final drive. The Bills got the ball back with 7:17 on the clock. They ended up converting a fourth and three at midfield (applause Sean, thank you!) but then, shit hit the fan. The Bills are on the Chiefs’ 26-yard line with a little over two minutes to play. It’s second down. Now I don’t know what the play call was, but Josh decided to take a shot at the end zone. This is a lose-lose scenario in my mind. Had the Bills scored, they would have been up by 4 (assuming Tyler Bass makes the extra point) and given the Chiefs the ball back with around two minutes left and two timeouts. What is the probability Mahomes doesn’t score a touchdown with that amount of time? Less than twenty percent in my estimate. What’s the probability the Bills win the game if that event comes to fruition? Less than two percent, in my estimate.
Ok, so if the Bills do score, they likely lose, but if they don’t score, the clock stops for the incompletion, preventing them from bleeding it further, so even if they hit a game-tying field goal, the Chiefs get the ball back with even more time to take the lead. In short, that end zone shot on second down should have never been called and/or taken. What instead should have been called was a high probability short pass, either a crosser, screen, or comeback, or even a zone read if they were to run it. Contrary to the feeling of many, I don’t like the idea of handing the ball off to Cook as the Chiefs had stuffed the run in the fourth quarter.
The Bills should have been thinking four down territory on that final drive. The goal should have been to score a touchdown with less than a minute remaining in regulation while forcing the Chiefs to use all their timeouts. Instead, third down rolled around and Josh again took another shot at the end zone, failing to convert. On that third down, the Bills again should have called a short pass or possibly a zone read thinking four down territory.
Well, that was quite the leadup to the climax of the Bills’ latest leg-pissing choke job with the worst decision of the game. With 1:47 left, down by three, on the Chiefs’ 27-yard line, the Bills decide to walk out Tyler Bass (who nearly missed an extra point mind you) for the game tying 44-yard field goal on fourth and nine. The snap is back, the hold is down, the kick us up, aaaaaand, no good! WIDE RIGHT!!
Walking Tyler Bass out onto that field was the equivalent of forfeiting the game. The absolute best-case scenario with a field goal attempt is the game goes into overtime, which is a guaranteed loss for the Bills. The alternative is Patrick Mahomes drives down the field and scores with seconds remaining on the clock, another guaranteed loss for the Bills. The probability of things ending any other way is negligible, in my opinion.
So, there you have it. Sean decided to forfeit the game. The only unfortunate thing about Bass missing the field goal is it didn’t give the Allen-McDermott Bills the opportunity to improve their overtime record to 0 – 7, which would have been amazing to witness.
Do your job
Another major contributing factor to the Bills’ loss was multiple players failing to do their jobs. I’m not just talking about Tyler Bass, who mind you, I feel no sympathy for. Kicking field goals is his job, he gets paid to do one thing and one thing only. Do your job.
Next is Trent Sherfield. I get those deep shots from Allen were touch catches, but guess what, he’s an NFL receiver. This is a big game with high stakes. He has to come down with at least one of those balls. Do your job.
Don’t worry y’all, I didn’t forget. Stefon Diggs. I remember his embarrassing sideline antics during the Bengals loss in the divisional round last year. Not sure what he was so animated about, but now I sit here and wonder why he wasn’t so animated after this loss. Is it because Josh hit him with a 60-yard dime that snuck right through his hands? If he’s gonna talk the talk, he’s gotta walk the walk. They pay him big bucks to make that play. This isn’t the first time I remember Diggs coming up short in a big moment. Remember that contested catch he lost on third and fifteen against Minnesota with 3:35 left in the game back in 2022? Yeah, Diggs either has to step up his game or stop acting out.
On the bright side
On the bright side, the Bills offense put together one of its better games of the year. A balanced attack kept the ball out of Mahomes’ hands and kept the team in the game for all but the last two minutes. 180+ rushing yards is nothing to sneeze at, nor is the fact that the Bills allowed no sacks the entire game. The offense also played clean from a penalties and turnovers standpoint, though Josh did almost cough the ball up in the fourth quarter which would have cost them the game. I’m not mentioning the fake punt here because that call isn’t on the offense.
Contrary to the belief of some, I think Josh Allen played a great game. He had no turnovers (though almost lost a fumble) and importantly no head-scratching interceptions. He also led the team in rushing and accounted for all the team’s touchdowns either through the air or with his legs, but it still wasn’t enough to earn his team a win.
People often like to compare Josh Allen to Patrick Mahomes and highlight how Josh always comes up short in their postseason matchups. While I don’t think Josh is a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes, I do think that more was required of him in this game than was required of Patrick Mahomes.
During this past game, the Bills worked hard for their yards and points, landing no explosive plays and instead grinding the entire length of the field. Throughout the game, the entire offense ran through Josh Allen (literally). I only remember him missing one throw, the second down shot to Shakir in the end zone with his offensive tackle sitting in his lap. Sure, the argument could be made that the game was in his hands on that final drive, and that for him to be considered one of the greats, he needed to seal the deal. I don’t disagree.
Other than that, I guess you could argue some of Josh’s reads could have been better. The argument that he didn’t push the ball down the field well enough kind of falls flat considering the three times he did, his receivers dropped the passes. With a poor defensive performance, the Bills leaned entirely on their offense to win them the game, and in that offense, leaned almost exclusively on Josh Allen. If Josh didn’t show up, the Bills would have been completely fucked.
In my opinion, much less was required of Mahomes in this recent matchup. In fact, I think Mahomes could have fallen flat, and the Chiefs still would have won the game. Compared to Allen’s one missed throw to Shakir with his tackle sitting in his lap, Mahomes overthrew a wide-open Kelce in the far corner of the end zone and missed an open MVS (9:20 2nd quarter) in the near side of the end zone, both with a relatively clean pocket if I remember correctly.
Sure, Mahomes made some great plays (see the mention above about the second and nine to Rashee Rice) but Mahomes’ margin for error was far larger than Allen’s. Unlike Josh, Mahomes wasn’t forced to run the ball because Pacheko was effective out of the backfield. Mahomes was also throwing to receivers with good separation (Travis Kelce), likely due to effective play designs and a ramshackle Bills secondary. I therefore don’t buy the argument that Josh was outplayed by Mahomes this game. Now could Mahomes have outplayed Josh if he needed to? Probably, but the circumstances didn’t warrant it.
I also don’t buy the argument that Josh was outplayed by Mahomes in the “13 seconds” loss. Some might sit back and say “only Mahomes can get a field goal with thirteen seconds left starting on his own 25!” I would actually argue that any guy who can throw the ball 30 yards would have been able to accomplish that feat. Mahomes’ first throw was to a wide-open Tyreek Hill underneath with blockers in front. His second throw was to a wide-open Travis Kelce who ran for 10 yards and downed himself for a field goal try. Josh won that game, went to the bench, and the defense completely and utterly pissed it down their trousers. They literally gave KC 40 yards. Any scheme other than what they did would have been better. Unless Mahomes designed and called those plays, Andy Reid won them that game.
The Bills aren't cursed
To say the Bills are cursed is at best annoying and at worst irresponsible. The Bills aren’t cursed. If you want to see a cursed franchise, look at the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, or even arguably the Cincinnati Bengals. Hell, the Chiefs even had an offsides call cost them a Super Bowl appearance, and again cost them a regular season game this year against the Bills!! Maybe they’re cursed!
Not many teams have had the success the Bills have had in the 2020s or the early 90s. Saying the Bills are cursed deflects all blame to unseen forces that cannot be controlled. Lightning didn’t come down and strike Norwood’s kick, a seagull didn’t fly in front of Bass’s try. Guess what happened? The kickers didn’t do their jobs.
Thirteen seconds was also not the result of a curse, it was merely an obscene exhibition of incompetence by the Bills coaching staff. There were a million and one ways to seal the deal that game. The Bills chose none of them.
In my opinion, this Bills’ latest loss to the Chiefs pales in comparison to thirteen seconds. The Bills had the thirteen seconds game won and the coaching staff, specifically those involved in defensive play calling, stole the game and served it up to Andy Reid on a silver platter next to a cheeseburger whilst donning piss-soaked trousers and gasping for air.
I don’t think the Bills should have ever been favored to win this game. I actually bet against them, an act for which I was called many names, but hey, money is money. Furthermore, there was no rational argument for the Bills to be favored. When I asked anybody to provide an argument for the Bills to be favored, I was eventually met with “I don’t know.” Yeah, damn right you don’t know. Why don’t you know? Because they should have never been favorites! For the Bills to win their regular season matchup, they needed a healthy defense (for the time), a Mahomes pick, an offsides call on Toney to erase a touchdown, and Pacheko to sit out due to injury. This time around? Pacheko was healthy, Mahomes played clean, the refs didn’t give us the game, and the Bills showed up with a ramshackle defense led by their RV linebacker.
The last thing I want to address here is the notion that the Bills “came into the postseason as the hottest team.” While that may appear to be the case on paper, I don’t think they played any better than they had all year, instead, the cards just started falling the Bills’ way. The only game the Bills won during their win streak in my opinion was the Dallas game, where they beat up on a bunch of overrated bullies (shout out Broussard). In the other games, the opponents lost the game more than the Bills won the game. Example: Patriots turning the ball over four times in the first quarter, Chiefs touchdown being erased by a bonehead offsides, Miami allowing a punt return and then throwing an interception on what could have been a game tying or winning drive. The list goes on. I wasn’t even impressed with the win over the Steelers in the wildcard round. As far as I’m concerned, Mason Rudolph shouldn’t even be in the NFL, but the Bills’ defense let the Steelers’ offense move the ball up and down the field. Furthermore, Josh almost threw multiple interceptions, but thankfully the Steelers’ dbs have Kadarius Toney hands.
Looking ahead
Going forward, I’m less optimistic about the Bills’ future than I was coming into this past year. It’s totally possible that I end up being wrong and hopefully that’s the case, but it’s hard for me to find an argument against this stance. McDermott has improved marginally over the past seven years, but there are too many recurring themes, especially in the postseason.
The first is a defense that falls flat. In every postseason loss starting with the AFC Championship, our defense has gotten kicked in the teeth. AFC Championship game: Chiefs score on nearly every drive, following year divisional round: Chiefs score on nearly every drive, following year divisional round: Bengals walk all over the Bills’ defense, this year divisional round: Chiefs score on nearly every drive. It’s hard for me to get behind a defensively minded coach whose defense is perpetually bad during the only part of the season that really matters. The Bills have enough talent to get themselves to the postseason every year, what counts is performance in the playoffs. Bill Belichick is the perfect counterexample, whose defense won the team the game multiple times during the postseason (Rams Super Bowl, Chiefs AFC Championship, Seahawks Super Bowl, the list goes on).
McDermott also has far too many coaching blunders. The poster-child example here is that fake punt call. I just can’t even fathom what he was thinking. Even if the play had worked, I would have still hated the call. He also blew the game against the Broncos that could have cost the Bills a playoff appearance and then fired the offensive coordinator for some reason. Twelve men on the field? Come on man, get your shit together.
Sean’s habit of blowing timeouts before the two-minute warning (in either half) is also problematic, especially when he blows them on defense. I can’t tell you how many times the opponent has been in the red zone, Sean has blown a timeout (without the game on the line, before the two-minute warning), and the opponent has ended up scoring a touchdown on the drive. No more timeouts on defense unless you’re over/undermanned or it’s an end-of-half time crunch. Sean was more conservative with his timeouts during the Chiefs game, which was promising. He also won two challenges in the postseason, which was uncharacteristically promising as well, but I think these examples are exceptions to the rule.
Extremely problematic to me is the Allen-McDermott Bills’ overtime record. 0 – 6 is so impossibly abysmal it’s hard to believe. This overtime record requires failure on multiple fronts, offense, defense, and special teams. Guess who oversees all of those? McDermott. As CEO of the company, you don’t run the day-to-day, but you are responsible and accountable for that day-to-day, so that abysmal record is on you.
Perhaps my biggest concern is the age of the team. All the team’s core players are on the wrong side of the aging hill. Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Miller, Milano, and White are a few names that come to mind. These guys balled out during the early 20s/19 seasons, but it won’t last forever, and I think we’re seeing that. It’s not a knock on them, it’s just the way it works. Hyde has been banged up since his injury in early 2022, Tre hasn’t been on the field for practically all of the past two seasons, Von showed up this year as a shadow of his former self, and I don’t see Diggs getting it done like he used to anymore.
I think the team needs to get younger, but it’s tough to get young talent when you’ve signed Von and Diggs to long expensive contracts and you’re paying Josh big bucks as you should be. To address personnel problems, Bills seem to have adopted a habit of slapping on band aids: they dug Beasley and John Brown out of the metaphorical retirement home for last postseason and picked up Rasul Douglas this year who was a Godsend but is also 28. The Bills should have tried to get rid of Von, Diggs, and White while they could still get something for them and possibly used that money to develop their receiving core. Trent Sherfield ain’t cutting it. Invest in some younger guys you can develop who can rise to the occasion when you need them. Shakir is a great example, he’s a young dude that showed up big in a big-time game.
I think the team would also benefit from a new head coach, as long as he’s an offensively oriented one that can connect with Josh. The Bills have had virtually no stability at the OC spot during Josh’s prime years, and I think they’ve paid the price for it. I’m also concerned that Josh is now ending his seasons dinged up. There has to be better ways to produce on offense other than using your quarterback as a battering ram. On a similar note, the Bills could probably also use a DC. The track record for teams that decide to leave a coordinator spot vacant isn’t great.
One key sticking point that comes with the idea of a new coach is the typical “but things could be worse.” I think the argument that “things could be worse” is a dumb one. That argument manifests itself from the same mindset as does playing to not lose the game. The loser averse mindset will cost you Super Bowls. Think about what you need to do to win, not what you need to do to not lose.
In closing, it’s hard for me to see the Bills improving next year. What I envision is the same team and coaching staff, which aside from the injury roulette, will most likely yield the same results.
I welcome your thoughts in the comments section. Go Bills.
